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Experts say with the recent rise in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations, the The states won't see any easing of the pandemic in the months ahead. Getty Images
  • Experts say the U.s. is withal in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, with new cases and hospitalizations rising.
  • They warn that a second wave could hit this fall when schools reopen and people begin spending more fourth dimension indoors.
  • They say people need to learn to live with the virus and should keep to clothing masks, keep their physical altitude, and avoid large indoor events.

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There may have been some initial optimism concerning the COVID-19 pandemic equally businesses reopened and the number of new cases flattened out.

Even so, reports from the past calendar week of a surging number of new cases in more than twenty states suggests something of a reality check: This is far from over.

The New York Times' reports indicate that twenty percent of newly diagnosed cases of COVID-xix around the globe are in the The states — despite the fact that the state is 4 percent of the world's population.

Hospitalizations due to COVID-19 are rising in 14 states, especially Arizona and Texas. That'south a primal measure scientists use to gauge the severity of the outbreak.

The head of Harvard's Global Wellness Institute says that without drastic activeness, the U.South. death rate from the coronavirus could reach 200,000 in September.

Experts tell Healthline the current surge is still part of the ebb and flow of the first moving ridge.

"There is no second wave. That'south kind of a misnomer," said Dr. Jeffrey D. Klausner, professor of medicine and public health at the UCLA David Geffen School of Medicine and the Fielding School of Public Health in California.

"These are expected continuations of infection into susceptible populations," he told Healthline. "This is not a large one-size-fits-all where anybody gets infected at the same time."

In part, the experts say, this is the virus pushing into smaller communities after the initial outbreaks in large urban areas such as New York Urban center.

"New York City has population density," said Helen Eastward. Jenkins, PhD, an assistant professor of biostatistics at the Boston University School of Public Wellness in Massachusetts. "People there rely on a public send organization, which is a great way to spread the virus."

"I think what we're seeing is the fact that the virus spreads a little fleck more than slowly in places where people are spread out more and are more reliant on cars," Jenkins told Healthline.

Information technology has been widely suspected that the protests for racial equity around the country could be a vehicle to transmit the virus to thousands.

There accept been reports of people who attended rallies being diagnosed with COVID-19, but experts say existence outdoors probably worked to the advantage of the demonstrators.

"I definitely remember the outdoors will make manual less likely in those settings," Jenkins said. "I don't think we're seeing the touch on of those at this point."

What part does reopening play?

"Reopening, depending on how y'all do it, is likely to increase the spread," she said.

Florida and Texas were among the first states to reopen and loosen restrictions. Both states are now seeing tape numbers of new daily COVID-19 cases.

In Texas, the numbers have seen a dramatic spring over just the by few days. The number of new cases has averaged more than 3,500 per day. The number of hospitalizations are at more than than 3,200 a twenty-four hour period.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott said his land will step up patrols of places not complying with physical distancing and will close downward overcrowded bars. Just the governor said "Endmost downwards Texas once more will always exist the final option."

But a "slowdown" is underway in some states equally their COVID-xix numbers sharply increase.

Officials in Oregon, Utah, and Tennessee are pumping the brakes on reopening plans, at to the lowest degree temporarily.

"Since the very beginning day of this pandemic, I don't think [we've been] in a more confused position about what's happening. Nosotros just aren't quite sure what [the novel coronavirus is] going to practice adjacent," Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, MPH, said in an interview with National Public Radio last week.

Osterholm is an infectious disease epidemiologist and director of the Center for Infectious Illness Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

"I recall the one factor that we must keep in mind at all times is that, to date, most v to 7 percent of the U.Southward. population has been infected with the virus. That'south it," he said.

"All the pain, suffering, expiry, and economic disruption take occurred with 5 to vii percent. But this virus is not going to boring downwards transmission overall. It may come and go, just it volition go on transmitting until we get at least 60 or 70 percent of the population infected and hopefully develop immunity. Or, if nosotros become a vaccine, that can get us there, likewise," he added.

The Trump administration at present says it's preparing for the possibility of a 2nd wave of COVID-19 that could hit this fall.

"Nosotros are filling the stockpile in anticipation of a possible problem in the fall," Peter Navarro, the White House's trade advisor, told CNN on Sunday. "Yous prepare for what can maybe happen. I'thou non saying it's going to happen, only of course you fix."

Experts tell Healthline a 2d wave this fall is indeed a possibility.

"I think it'due south pretty probable there will exist a second wave in the fall. People will be spending more fourth dimension indoors as the weather gets colder. Schools and universities come back. The states will reopen more than and more than," Jenkins said. "All those things combined could cause a second moving ridge in the fall."

That second wave could launch right effectually the time nosotros start fighting flu season.

"Considering we tin conceptualize an increment in the fall, we need to make sure people get the influenza vaccine," Klausner said.

"We have to protect the population and reduce the brunt on hospitals," he added. "Every year the flu results in hundreds of thousands of medical visits, and they sometimes end up in the ICU."

Experts say you lot should go along wearing your mask, keeping your distance, and washing your hands because those strategies work.

"Some of the most effective interventions accept been some of the personal beliefs changes," Klausner said.

Experts add that there will have to be more than testing, surveillance, and contact tracing.

They notation nosotros probably won't see a vaccine anytime soon. Merely at that place are treatments in the pipeline that could help.

"I think nosotros'll be very lucky to see a vaccine next year. Information technology's possible it could take longer than that," Jenkins said. "Don't forget, it's not but having a viable vaccine. It's also producing it in large numbers, getting it to people."

"Just in the meantime, in that location are lots of trials going on of different treatments to aid people," she added. "If nosotros notice some treatments that happen to save lives, then we tin can at least lower the death rate if large numbers of people cease up getting infected."

Jonathan Van-Tam, Britain's deputy chief medical officer, is already alert the United Kingdom it may have to acquire to live with COVID-nineteen "certainly for many months to come up, if not several years."

And if yous've ever wondered how public health experts personally run into the futurity, this recent New York Times survey of more than than 500 epidemiologists gives u.s.a. some insight.

Many said that without a vaccine or effective treatment, it would be more than a yr earlier they'd be willing to get back to concerts, sporting events, or to church building.

And some said they may never greet people with hugs or handshakes once again.